Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.716798 1.787795 1.862054 1.945876 2.038305 2.137639 2.253183
2025-11-30 1.640256 1.733580 1.834485 1.952683 2.088678 2.241977 2.430462
2025-12-07 1.553985 1.657516 1.771814 1.908953 2.071308 2.260535 2.502870
2025-12-14 1.501462 1.614130 1.740783 1.896019 2.084645 2.311513 2.613895
2025-12-21 1.453650 1.572546 1.708155 1.877300 2.087367 2.346983 2.705642
2025-12-28 1.431840 1.559386 1.707165 1.895075 2.134266 2.439338 2.879410
2026-01-04 1.417740 1.554046 1.714404 1.922236 2.193480 2.551037 3.091790
2026-01-11 1.389536 1.530204 1.697526 1.917442 2.209886 2.605319 3.226502
2026-01-18 1.367734 1.513013 1.687700 1.920516 2.236046 2.674116 3.391046
2026-01-25 1.331525 1.476767 1.652499 1.888612 2.212210 2.668675 3.434951
2026-02-01 1.307507 1.454753 1.634283 1.877951 2.216658 2.704293 3.550882
2026-02-08 1.285437 1.434393 1.617306 1.867918 2.220966 2.739352 3.669940
2026-02-15 1.263635 1.414337 1.600764 1.858724 2.227315 2.780164 3.810436
2026-02-22 1.250811 1.405067 1.597590 1.867208 2.259263 2.863334 4.045841
2026-03-01 1.219612 1.371564 1.561738 1.829074 2.219980 2.827535 4.036527
2026-03-08 1.201149 1.353884 1.546115 1.818433 2.221209 2.858644 4.172262
2026-03-15 1.181406 1.334056 1.527047 1.802146 2.212845 2.872617 4.273429
2026-03-22 1.175625 1.332029 1.531433 1.819021 2.256066 2.978911 4.609467
2026-03-29 1.173309 1.334341 1.541551 1.844319 2.313802 3.117162 5.071212
2026-04-05 1.160302 1.322293 1.531826 1.840265 2.324142 3.168972 5.323364
2026-04-12 1.150459 1.314152 1.527136 1.843318 2.346047 3.244846 5.674925
2026-04-19 1.129624 1.291059 1.501394 1.814266 2.313316 3.210635 5.672263
2026-04-26 1.116379 1.277801 1.488904 1.804610 2.312562 3.240291 5.891945